The Crypto Moment We’ve Been Waiting For Is HERE (audio newsletter)
The Data Is Clear: Crypto’s Next Big Move Is Imminent
Hey everyone,
Welcome to this week’s breakdown of the crypto markets, where we dive deep into Bitcoin's price action and the macro factors at play. If you’ve been following closely, you know we spend a lot of time zoomed out on these charts—focusing on the bigger picture, the cycles, the halving events, and the parabolic bull runs. But right now, we’re entering a key moment in the market cycle. Yes, Bitcoin’s dipping and crypto overall is facing short-term pressure, but this is the moment we’ve been waiting for. I’ve been tracking this since the 2018 bear market low, and if you’ve been with me since then, you know exactly how important this point in the cycle is.
This moment doesn’t come around often. We’ve been patiently waiting for years to reach this stage in the Bitcoin cycle, and now that we’re here, you better have your game plan ready. We’re so on track it’s not even funny.
Where We Are in the Bitcoin Cycle
Let’s take a step back and look at Bitcoin on the weekly chart. It’s crucial to remember that the long-term outlook has always been the key to success in this space. While the current dip may not feel great, it’s important to remember that we’re in the part of the cycle where things can shift dramatically—and quickly. I’ve been posting about this since the 2018 lows, and we’re now at a critical juncture that could define the next big move for Bitcoin.
I know it’s easy to get caught up in the short-term noise, but when you zoom out, you’ll see that this retrace is just another part of the cycle. Yes, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is pumping right now, but that’s actually a positive sign for the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin and crypto. The dollar is approaching overbought conditions, and this is something we’ve seen before.
The Dollar’s Role in Bitcoin’s Price Action
So, why is this important for Bitcoin? The DXY has a strong inverse correlation with Bitcoin and other risk-on assets like equities. When the dollar is strong, Bitcoin tends to struggle. But as the dollar approaches overbought conditions, the likelihood of a consolidation and retrace increases—and that’s the moment we’ve been waiting for.
Look at the momentum oscillators on the dollar. The MACD and RSI are both signaling overbought conditions, and every time we've seen this in the past, it’s followed by a pullback. The upcoming U.S. elections and all the uncertainty in the markets are fueling this dollar strength, but as we head into November, things will likely change.
In short, when the dollar finally tops out, we’ll be in a prime position for Bitcoin to begin its next leg up.
Why This Is the Perfect Setup for Bitcoin
Now, let’s talk about why this is actually good for Bitcoin, even if the short-term price action isn’t exciting. We’re seeing the dollar strength, but at the same time, we’re approaching a moment in the Bitcoin cycle where, historically, post-elections, the market shifts into overdrive. Every cycle we’ve tracked has followed this pattern, and I don’t think this one will be any different.
This is exactly what I’ve been highlighting since 2018. The setup is undeniable. Just take a look at the charts and you’ll see the confluence of factors all pointing to a breakout. Everything I’ve been discussing over the years—everything we’ve been preparing for—is in motion right now.
Gold is another factor we can’t ignore. It’s currently consolidating after hitting an all-time high, and similar to what we saw in the previous cycle, a retrace in gold could coincide with a breakout in Bitcoin. When you combine this with the technicals—like Bitcoin approaching the 20-week moving average and its MACD crossing into bullish territory—the timing just feels right.
The Upcoming Elections and Historical Patterns
With the U.S. elections just two weeks away, things are going to get volatile. But if history is any guide, we’re about to enter the “up-only” phase post-elections. This pattern has played out in every Bitcoin cycle since its inception, and while nothing is guaranteed, the data is overwhelmingly positive for a post-election Bitcoin rally.
So yes, we might see a bit more downside in the short term, but when the dust settles after November 5th, I believe we’ll see Bitcoin make its move.
This is what we’ve been waiting for. This is what I’ve been tracking for years, and we’re finally here.
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Outlook
The support area I’m watching closely is between $62,000 and $65,000. This is where Bitcoin could find its footing before making a stronger push higher. There’s no guarantee we’ll hold this level, but if we do, the setup is perfect for a parabolic move into 2024.
Yes, it’s tough to watch the price dip, but this is exactly where patience and perspective come in. Remember, the macro story hasn’t changed. We’ve been preparing for this for years, and everything we’re seeing right now—the dollar strength, the election cycle, and Bitcoin’s technical setup—points to a major move ahead.
Wrapping Up
At the end of the day, we’re in this for the long term. There will be volatility, but if we keep our eyes on the bigger picture, there’s a lot to be excited about. I’ll be here tracking the markets every step of the way, and I encourage all of you to stay patient and stay prepared.
This is the moment we’ve been talking about since 2018, and now we’re here. We’re so on track it’s not even funny.
As always, thanks for being here with me on this journey. If you’re not already subscribed, hit the subscribe button, share this newsletter, and let’s continue to stay ahead of the curve.
Take care, stay sharp, and God bless.